2008 – Alberta

This is the first of the old PM4E Alberta scenarios that I am hoping to remake for the new infinity engine.

Premier Ed Stelmach is seeking his first mandate from the people of Alberta. Alberta’s white-hot economy is beginning to slow and the Opposition has battered the government on the oil royalty issue, health care premiums, and affordable housing. Will Premier Stelmach be able to win another solid majority, or will the PC string of victories end at 37 years?

South Korean Presidential Election – 2017

Some election night exit poll videos (KBS, MBC, SBS):

Finally, I have finished revising the previous South Korean election scenario.

There are still a few problems

  1. Several issue positions (Electoral Reform, Housing, and Welfare) were not included because of my lack of knowledge on some issues, and the fact that it is sometimes hard to find a clear difference between conservatives and liberals in certain issues. Also, among the issues currently I have included, I still have some doubts about the accuracy of the issue positions.
  2. In general, the issue positions for the candidates are accurate. However, of some issue positions, I could not find a candidates’ view on the topic (especially the relatively unknown candidates). Also, a small number of these positions may be inaccurate.
  3. I did not exactly add All the endorsers. I could add them in the future, though most of them are like this: 4000 doctors endorse Moon Jae-in, etc. Besides, there are already many endorsers (300 assemblymen, 17 Mayors/Governors, and a several others)
  4. There may be too many “arrests” in the events section.
  5. The money is still in dollars, even though it is Won, IRL. However, I retained the dollars due to possible complications. Also, because I couldn’t find their campaign finance data (I just put in their net worth or I just put in a rough guess).
  6. Some of the candidate portraits could be better, but I’ll let you decide on that.
  7. There are some minor candidates I did not add (those that did not end up registering, a few that were cut-off in the People’s Party primaries). The reason is that it is difficult to find some of their stances on the issues. Plus, it took a lot of time to update this scenario.

Feedback on New Scenario Ideas

Non-First Past the Post Electoral Systems and New Scenarios

Proportional Representation – I’ve recently been exploring the possibility of utilising the primary election proportional representation (PR) feature on President Infinity to create scenarios for countries that use PR, unfortunately to no avail. I think it would be great to see this feature made available for the general election, in addition to the primary elections, in order to allow for the creation of accurate PR election scenarios. Would be interested to see if anyone else feels the same!

In the current absence of this feature outside of the PI primaries, I’ve found two ways to work around it:

Firstly, when I’ve been working on a full PR election, such as British EU Parliamentary election scenarios for example (all were held using regional PR lists following 1999), instead of using FPTP seats, which would produce widely unrealistic results, I’ve instead set the scenario to a direct popular vote. While this means that no seats are allocated and regional differences are not accounted for, it does reflect the proportionality of the election somewhat. I’d be keen to hear what people think about this method and whether it makes for an interesting scenario or not.

Secondly, for mixed member proportional elections (some FPTP seats, some PR), I’ve instead envisioned making scenarios solely focused on the FPTP seats. The only issue with this is that it would produce unrealistic/simplistic results with nations like Wales or Scotland, where one party has a large advantage in terms of FPTP seats, or for nations like Italy, which have a greater number of PR list seats than FPTP seats. I’d also be keen to see if people would find these sorts of scenarios interesting, despite being somewhat incomplete.

Two Round Elections – Two round elections have been made somewhat more accessible with the onset of the ranked choice feature, which despite not providing for an actual second round, does whittle the number of candidates down to two. I’ve been experimenting with the possibility of creating French legislative election scenarios with this, something I would also be keen to receive feedback on the possibility of.

I would also like to make a French presidential election scenario, however, as the ranked choice feature only works for single regions, it would require a single, all-France region to work in this way, meaning that the only alternative to a two round national election scenario would be to have separate first and second round popular vote scenarios. I would be interested to know what people would think about either having two separate scenarios for each round, or indeed if just having a first round scenario would be more interesting.

Future Projects

I’d therefore be interested to hear feedback on some future projects I had in mind relating to the above, or any tips or ideas regarding the use of non-FPTP voting systems.

PR Elections:

  • Welsh and Scottish devolved elections, 1999-2021 (focusing only on FPTP seats)
  • British EU Elections, 1999-2019 (using popular vote)
  • Italian general election, 2018 (focusing only on FPTP seats)
  • German general election, 2017 and upcoming (focusing only on FPTP seats)

Two Round Elections:

  • French legislative elections, 2017 (using ranked choice, instant run-off for the seats)
  • French presidential election, 2017 (using two separate FPTP scenarios)

Miscellaneous (if there’s interest to make the scenarios):

  • Scottish independence referendum, 2014
  • Update the EU referendum 2016, Quebec referendum 1995 scenarios
  • Quebec independence referendum, 1980
  • Australian republic referendum, 1999

Would be very interested to hear everyone’s feedback and opinions on the voting systems (if you too would like to see a PR and second round feature added), as well as any feedback on the possible scenarios listed above or any other suggestions for future scenarios.

Thanks!

Template – Michigan

Hello everyone! It is I, your dear ruler, back from isolation where I have been slaving away for things to be made available to you, my loyal plebs!

In my time away I have literally attempted to create a Michigan 2020 Senate scenario for you (and myself) to enjoy. In doing this, I discovered there is one immense problem. Michigan is a state of 83 counties, with 70+ of those being normally very conservative. Going through and 1) naming, 2) targeting, 3) inserting a) voters, b) population, and c) voter registered, 4) region IDs, and 5) county flags alone takes almost an entire day. One problem most scenario creators find is that it’s nigh impossible to stay dedicated to such work over an extended period of time (I can’t imagine the slog that must be doing a state like Texas, with over 200 counties.

I do not know yet if anyone has made a Michigan scenario, I do not believe so. So in this case I decided to make a template.

This has everything already set out for you-voters, reg. voters, population, region names, ids, and flags, region placements, default R-D candidate placeholders, all the basic work is done already. You need to add in everything else-issues you want, candidate’s names and other things, blurbs, issue strength, events, debates, polls, primary info, that sort of stuff. But, all the hard work, the really hard work-is done for you. So please, enjoy!

Note: I am currently creating a Michigan Senatorial 2020 scenario, and so would appreciate it if no one else took up the challenge of making it!

US Gubernatorial Races – 2018

Gubernatorial – 2018

With 36 state governorships up for election this year, there are many opportunities for Jay Inslee’s Democratic Governors Association to add to their membership. Members of Bill Haslam’s Republican Governor’s Association will be primarily on the defense, but there may be opportunities for the Republicans to flip a few races as well. Will the Democrats ride a “blue wave” into the governorships of these states, or will this “blue wave” fizzle out and enable the Republicans to retain control of these states before redistricting in 2020?

NB. While this is obviously not true to how gubernatorial races work in real life, I thought that it would be a neat idea to develop a scenario of this sort. If people enjoy it, I may do other cycles.

Jamaica – 2016

Jamaica – 2016

Amidst the backdrop of rumours surrounding more IMF-sponsored austerity measures, Prime Minster Portia Simpson-Miller has called an early election. She will be running a campaign centered around steady economic growth, a lowering debt-to-GDP ratio, and multiple international credit upgrades. These achievements have come at a cost, however, as the IMF-imposed austerity measures remain deeply unpopular with the Jamaican electorate. Following his defeat in 2011, Leader of the Opposition Andrew Holness is ready for an attempt to regain his position as Prime Minister of Jamaica. The JLP have unveiled a 10-point plan designed to spur economic growth, while simultaneously lowering taxes in the island nation. While polling seems to indicate a razor-thin PNP lead, this election is up for grabs by either party!

2020 Alabama Senate

In 2020, Tommy Tuberville (generic Alabama name) defeated incumbent Senator Doug Jones. Will this election play out the same, or can Jones capitalize on anti-Trump sentiment and keep the seat blue for another six years?

Republicans

  • Mr. Tommy Tuberville
  • Sen. Luthor Strange
  • Rep. Mo Brooks

Democrats

  • Attorney and Sen. Doug Jones

2012 – Alberta v.2

As Premier Alison Redford dropped the election writ, she sets off a 28-day provincial campaign that will send Albertans to the polls on April 23 2012. Redford requested Lt.-Gov. Donald Ethell end the Legislature, setting off what is expected to be one of the most competitive election battles in decades. The 28-day campaign will see the PC leader try to extend her party’s 41-year grip on power, while Danielle Smith of the Wildrose Alliance, Raj Sherman of the Alberta Liberals, Brian Mason of the NDP, and Glenn Taylor of the Alberta Party will all be trying to end the Tory dynasty that started in 1971.

Features;

  • Election Data based on official election results with voter shifts to reflect pre-campaign polling
  • 9 Parties and the Electoral Commission as an observer party.
  • Lots of events from the Calgary Herald
  • Updated Issues and regional centres (Definitions are quite generic to reflect a multitude of parties.)
  • Campaign funding totals from Elections Alberta